Between supply from EU and Black Sea exports against demand from Middle East and Northern Africa, there’s still a gap of more than 25 million metric tons, said Walter Kunisch, senior commodity strategist for Hilltop Securities Inc. Also, there are many questions as to how much Ukraine can export materially in the next three to six months, which will depend on the amount held at ports, the quality of the stock, and other issues like insurance, he said.

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