The emergence of the Delta variant in July caused consumers to tap the brakes on spending, but as the summer wore on, purchases apparently resumed....

The August consumer price index indicated price pressures may be heading lower, allowing Fed officials additional time to assess the recent economic...

This is an unusually sparse week for data releases, but there’s no shortage of economic chatter. There’s little question that the economy is...

The "substantial further progress" Fed officials were hoping to see in payroll growth didn’t happen. In fact, the meager +235k jobs added to nonfarm...

This morning, the ADP employment change report showed just +374k jobs added to company payrolls in August, well short of the +625k median forecast....

Going into the virtual Jackson Hole economic symposium, expectations had emerged that clear direction on a taper timeline would be revealed. In his...

This morning, the second-tier economic data releases generally fell short of the mark …but not by much and frankly, all ears are on the Fed right now...

The rapid spread of the Delta variant has prompted a recalibration of the economic outlook, with a majority of economists already lowering third...

Analysts had anticipated consumer spending would slow as stimulus checks were gradually spent. The expectation was that Americans would quickly...

The University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index dropped a stunning -13.5% in August to 71.2, well below the expected 81.2 median forecast. What...

Headline CPI rose +0.5% last month, down from the +0.9% reading in June, while core CPI was up +0.3%, well below the +0.9% June core advance. On a...

The spread of the Delta variant, which is now responsible for 90% of new covid cases, has happened so quickly that the magnitude of the problem...

U.S. companies added +943k jobs to payrolls in July, topping the +870k median forecast, while the June payroll count was revised upward from +850k to...

First-time filings for state unemployment benefits fell for the second straight week, while continuing benefit claims dropped to the lowest level...

This morning, ADP employment services reported just 330k jobs were added to company payrolls in July, less than half of the median forecast and down...

The initial reading of second quarter GDP missed the +8.4% median forecast with a +6.5% quarter-over-quarter annualized print. However, this number...

This afternoon, Fed officials voted unanimously to hold interest rates steady. In the official statement released at the conclusion of the July FOMC...

This morning, Freddie Mac reported the fourth straight weekly decrease in the average mortgage lending rate with the 30-year fixed dropping from...

Stronger-than-expected consumer spending during the month of June nudged bond yields higher this morning as a more robust economy may signal less...

The producer price index (PPI) for June piled on to yesterday’s outsized +0.9% gain in consumer prices with a +1.0% increase at both the headline and...

An eye-popping headline for June’s consumer price index, which nearly doubled forecasts with a +0.9% print that was the largest increase since June...

The U.S. economy accelerated in the spring months as COVID-19 slowed to a crawl and consumer demand for goods and services surged. The story of the...

The minutes to the June 16 Fed meeting showed committee members (as expected) have begun discussing the appropriateness of scaling back QE asset...

This morning, the June labor report surprised to the upside with +850k jobs added to U.S. company payrolls. It was the biggest monthly gain since...

The ISM manufacturing index slipped from 61.2 to 60.6 in June, still very strong historically, but down from a 38-year high in March. The Institute...

The highlight of the week is expected to be the monthly labor market report released on Friday morning, but there is no shortage of data to chew in...

There are indications that the remarkable pandemic-fueled housing run may be slowing …to a brisk jog. Total home sales in 2020 were the strongest in...

At the conclusion of the June FOMC meeting this afternoon, Fed officials announced no change in the overnight target rate and that they will continue...

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told CNBC’s Squawk Box this morning that he believes it would be prudent to begin hiking the overnight target...

The Commerce Department’s report on May retail sales missed expectations, but the shortfall was offset by upward revisions to prior months. Despite...

So far, investors agree with Fed officials that inflationary pressure will be short-lived, but hotter-than-expected prices have introduced some...

The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) continues to shred the argument that jobs are slow to return as the economy reopens. The survey...

Economists have warned there will continue to be an unusual amount of noise in the economic data, that seasonal-adjustment factors are suspect in the...

This morning’s stronger-than-expected labor market numbers suggest May non-farm payrolls (scheduled for release tomorrow) could surprise to the...

The Fed’s preferred inflation measure, core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE), jumped from +1.9% to +3.1% on a year-over-year basis in April,...

U.S. housing starts fell -9.5% to a 1.57 million unit annualized pace in April, well below the 1.7 million median forecast. Housing starts have been...

The headline retail sales number for April was unchanged, falling short of the median forecast of +1.0%. However, the March sales gain was revised...

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by a seasonally-adjusted +0.8% in April, well above the +0.2% median forecast. It was the biggest monthly gain...

The experts were in agreement: non-farm payrolls would surge again in April. They were wrong. In perhaps the biggest economic data disappointment in...

The ISM purchasing managers indexes for April told similar stories of widespread supply shortages, increasing price pressure and challenges in...

The initial reading of first quarter GDP came in at a quarter-over-quarter, annualized rate of +6.4%, a bit below the +6.7% median forecast, but well...

Fed officials concluded their two day FOMC meeting this afternoon, with no change in the overnight funds target or the amount of monthly assert...

This morning, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) announced new home sales had rebounded sharply in March following a weather-related plunge...

Yesterday, Freddie Mac reported a 3.8 million unit shortfall in single-family homes, 52% higher than Freddie’s assessment in 2018. The supply/demand...

Retail sales soared by +9.8% as a combination of warmer weather, vaccine success, business reopenings, pent-up demand, piles of available cash, tax...

This morning, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by a seasonally-adjusted +0.6% in March following...

The path of the Covid-19 virus dictated the direction of the economy in 2020, and the first quarter of 2021 was no exception. GDP growth was expected...

Fed officials have made it clear that their primary objective is full employment. Admittedly, the labor market still has a long way to go, but the...

Most economists expected hiring to accelerate sharply in future months. Apparently, the future is now. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported...

The outlook of U.S. factory managers in March was the brightest it’s been in over 38 years. The overall manufacturing index climbed from 60.8 to...

In February 2021, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index sat at 90.4, literally on top of its 20-year average. This morning, the March...

Yesterday, the Department of Labor reported initial jobless claims fell from 781k to 684k for the week ending March 20th. Although these first-time...

A rise in mortgage lending rates paired with extreme winter weather conditions combined to curb overall home sales during the month of February,...

The conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting revealed no change in monetary policy, and a resolute Fed inclined to hold rates steady as the economy...

Retail Sales dropped -3.0% last month as consumers battled freezing temperatures and waited on the next round of stimulus checks. The only major...

The bond market focus over the last month has been squarely on the sharp selloff on the long end of the yield curve, but short yields are threatening...

U.S. businesses added +379k jobs to company payrolls in February, nearly twice the median forecast. The January gain was revised upward from a...

The financial markets were eagerly awaiting this morning’s interview of Fed Chairman Jay Powell at the Wall Street Journal’s Virtual Jobs Summit. In...

The bond market selloff returned this morning as inflation expectations continue to rise. Higher bond yields, combined with concerns over equity...

In this morning’s economic releases, U.S. personal income for January rose +10%, the highest percentage increase in nine months according data from...

Bond yields continued to climb this morning as economic numbers indicate Q1 growth is gaining momentum. When the year began, the widely-held...

Fed Chairman Jay Powell testified this morning in front of the Senate Banking Committee on the state of the U.S. economy and the Fed’s monetary...

My apologies to fellow Texans facing much bigger issues than quarterly GDP projections. We went 60 hours without power and most of Monday and Tuesday...

Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report was probably the highpoint of an otherwise lame week for economic data…and even that was a nonevent as...

Consumer prices were well behaved in January as headline CPI climbed by +0.3% and core CPI was unchanged for the second straight month. Energy prices...

The January employment report was a disappointment with just 49k jobs added to company payrolls, less than half of the median forecast. The...

This morning, the non-manufacturing ISM report showed rising optimism among service sector purchasing managers. The overall index rose from 57.7 to...

Most analysts expect continued deceleration in the pace of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021, but recent data and encouraging vaccine progress...

In the official statement released this afternoon at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, Fed officials acknowledged that the pace of economic...

A flurry of better-than-expected economic releases hints the first quarter could be a bit stronger than most are anticipating, while the new...

Consumer spending was expected to be weak, but this morning’s release of the December retail sales report was quite a bit weaker than analysts had...

This morning’s key economic news was (yet again) deterioration in the labor market. Initial jobless claims jumped from 787k to 965k for the week...

Non-farm payrolls dropped by -140k in December, well below the puny +50k expected increase. The establishment survey losses were heavily concentrated...

This morning, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index for December climbed from 55.9 to 57.2, beating forecasts. (Any...

The third quarter of 2020 lived up to lofty expectations with GDP expanding at a remarkable +33.4% annualized pace. The record growth was fueled by...