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Economic Commentary
Questionable Seasonal Adjustments and Omicron Surge Weigh on December Spending
December retail sales fell well short of forecasts as the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and misplaced seasonal adjustment factors conspired to...
Markets Sigh as Hot December CPI isn’t any Hotter
The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose +0.5% in December and +7.0% on a year-over-year basis, the largest annual gain since June 1982. In 2020,...
Mixed Labor Report Keeps Fed on Track
Nonfarm payrolls rose by only +199k in December, the lowest monthly add since last December and less than half of the median forecast. October and...
Signs of a More Hawkish Fed and Labor Market Improvement Push Yields Higher
Earlier this week, the December ISM manufacturing survey indicated factory improvement despite a decline in the headline composite, which fell from...
2021 Q4 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook
The fourth quarter began amid a fast-retreating Delta variant case count and ended in the midst of sky-rocketing cases of Omicron, a highly...