By Scott McIntyre, CFA

Economic Commentary

Economic news and data drive Fed interest rate policy and financial market movement. The problem for many investors is sorting through the massive volume of news and numbers to separate the critical information from the noise. Our economic commentaries provide clear explanation of key events in layman’s terms, as well as regular interest rate updates.
January 14 , 2022

Questionable Seasonal Adjustments and Omicron Surge Weigh on December Spending

December retail sales fell well short of forecasts as the rapid spread of the Omicron variant and misplaced seasonal adjustment factors conspired to...

January 12 , 2022

Markets Sigh as Hot December CPI isn’t any Hotter

The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose +0.5% in December and +7.0% on a year-over-year basis, the largest annual gain since June 1982. In 2020,...

January 07 , 2022

Mixed Labor Report Keeps Fed on Track

Nonfarm payrolls rose by only +199k in December, the lowest monthly add since last December and less than half of the median forecast. October and...

January 06 , 2022

Signs of a More Hawkish Fed and Labor Market Improvement Push Yields Higher

Earlier this week, the December ISM manufacturing survey indicated factory improvement despite a decline in the headline composite, which fell from...

January 04 , 2022

2021 Q4 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook

The fourth quarter began amid a fast-retreating Delta variant case count and ended in the midst of sky-rocketing cases of Omicron, a highly...

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