August Employment Holds Few Surprises
If the Fed were to alter its policy stance, August job growth would have needed to vary significantly from expectations. It didn’t. In fact, the report as a whole was mostly as expected. Finding an interesting take is a challenge.
In the establishment survey, nonfarm payrolls rose by +315k in August, slightly above the +298k median forecast, although downward revisions to the previous two months subtracted -108k. Payrolls have risen by 5.8 million over the past year and are now 240k above the pre-pandemic high point.