The two-year Treasury note yield topped 5% for the first time since June 2007 yesterday, nearly a full percentage point above post-FOMC lows reached just over a month ago. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed back above 4% briefly last week for the first time since last November, dragging the 2’s/10’s spread to its widest negative point in 40 years. Normally, yield curve inversion has been a reliable signal of impending recession, but the current cycle is far from normal.

Read the full article

Read more Economic Commentary