The resources below provide additional insight into this important topic.
"We expect work-from-home and hybrid-work will continue to impact the public finance landscape. In some places, the impacts will shift economic activity, and lower sales and income taxes, making some sectors that are more dependent on those revenue streams more susceptible to potential financial strain. This is a once-in-a-generation shift that will likely play out more quickly and in select locations versus others, but will play out whether or not leaders acknowledge or like the trend."
Tom Kozlik, Head of Municipal Research and Analytics
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Research and Resources
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Future of Work
Future of Work
Research and Resources
2023
The Municipal Market in 2023, HilltopSecuries’ Municipal Sector Credit Outlooks, Tom Kozlik, January 17, 2023
2022
A New Model of Work is Here to Stay, We are Closely Watching How It Evolves, Tom Kozlik, August 30, 2022
Remote Work: A Theme That Will Impact Public Finance in the Near Term (page 6) in Municipal Bonds are an Exceedingly Appealing Fixed Income Opportunity Right Now, Tom Kozlik, May 11, 2022
Technology Will Win the Remote Work Conflict, Tom Kozlik, April 18, 2022
2022 Municipal Bond Analyst Survey, Tom Kozlik, April 11, 2022
Bloomberg: Hybrid Work Poses Credit Risk to Cities Looking to Issue Debt, Skylar Woodhouse, April 8, 2022
PODCAST: How the Restructuring of City Life and Remote Work Impacts Commercial Real Estate, Tom Kozlik, March 25, 2022
2021
Remote Work is Catching on Among Employers, Tom Kozlik, November 23, 2021
Many Cities Flourished Before COVID-19, but Glaeser and Cutler Argue, “Urban Triumph is Never Guaranteed”, Tom Kozlik, October 8, 2021
2022
Bloomberg: NYC Offices to See $50 Billion in Value Wiped Out, Study Says, Lizzie Kane, October 3, 2022 (Note: See related NBER study linked below under Academic Reports.)
San Francisco Standard: SF Bay Area Reigns as Nation’s Work-From-Home Capital, Census Data Shows, Noah Baustin, September 14, 2022
Chattanooga Times Free Press: Chattanooga’s major office employers decide remote work is here to stay, Dave Flessner, September 9, 2022
Governing.com: Turning Downtown Residential: Why It’s Poised to Happen, Alan Ehrenhalt, August 29, 2022
Wall Street Journal: Pension Funds Are Selling Their Office Buildings, Heather Gillers, August 25, 2022
The Washington Post: The Remote Work Revolution is Already Reshaping America, Andrew Van Dam, August 19, 2022
Bloomberg: US Cities Stung by Great Resignation Hike Wages, Romy Varghese, June 29, 2022
Wall Street Journal: Connecticut Makes Remote Work Permanent for State Employees, Bruising Hartford’s Economy, March 17, 2022
Governing.com: Remote Jobs Are Good for Workers, but Not for City Budgets, February 28, 2022
PEW: Increased Availability of Remote Work Could Hurt Some Cities’ Revenues, February 22, 2022
Merritt Research Services: Tracking Municipalities’ Reliance on Top Taxpayers – Exploring Commercial Real Estate Positions in 33 Major U.S. Cities, Rich Ciccarone, February 10, 2022
2021
Governing.com: What Will Working for State and Local Gov. Be Like in 2022?, December 13, 2021
American City and County: The new normal: How state and local governments can benefit from virtual desktop-as-a-service to support remote workforce, November 23, 2021
JDSupra: Does Your State Require Employers to Foot the Bill for Employees’ Remote Work Expenses? | Baker Donelson, March 17, 2021
2020
SSRN: How Do Cities Change When We Work from Home?, December 14, 2020
ICMA: After COVID-19: Is There a Place for Telework in Local Government?, May 14, 2020
2023
The Wall Street Journal: Public Transit Goes Off the Rails With Fewer Riders, Dwindling Cash, Rising Crime, Jimmy Vielkind, Jan. 8, 2023
2022
CNBC: What a recession means for return-to-office battle between workers and companies, Cheryl Winokur Munk, May 22, 2022
Forbes: What Impact Has The Pandemic Had On Mass Transit?, Laurie Winkless, February 15, 2022
The New York Times: How Remote Work Is Devastating New York City’s Commuter Rails, Haag and McGeeham, January 21, 2022
2021
The Washington Post: More workers are returning to the office. The pandemic-era commute might be changed forever, Katherine Shaver and Justin George, July 30, 2021
Bloomberg: Working From Home for Some Threatens Mass Transit for All, Elise Young, Danielle Moran, and Michelle Kaske, May 12, 2021
2022
SWAA August 2022 Updates, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, August 26, 2022
Special Briefing on Vulnerable Cities Facing Work from Home Realities, Nicholas Bloom and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, July 21, 2022
NBER: Why Working from Home Will Stick, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, February 15, 2022
2021
Let me work from home, or I will find another job, Jose Maria Barrero, Nicholas Bloom, and Steven J. Davis, July 18, 2021
Hybrid is the Future of Work, Nicholas Bloom, June 2021
VOXEU: Returning to the Office Will be Hard, Nicholas Bloom, Paul Mizen, Shivani Taneja, June 15, 2021
2020
How working from home works out, Nicholas Bloom, June 2020
The bright future of working from home, Nicholas Bloom, May 2020
2023
The Wall Street Journal: The Return to the Office Has Stalled, Peter Grant, May 16, 2023
The Wall Street Journal: The Decline of the Five-Day Commute Is a Boon to Suburban Retail, Kate King, May 9, 2023
The New York Times: A Bleak Outlook for Manhattan’s Office Space May Signal a Bigger Problem, Matthew Haag, April 25, 2023
The Wall Street Journal: Work-From-Home Era Ends for Millions of Americans, Gwynn Guilford, March 25, 2023
Tracking the San Francisco Bay Area’s Pandemic Recovery, Bay Area Council Economic Institute, March 2023
Partnership for New York City: Return to Office Survey Results, February 2023
The Wall Street Journal: For Remote Workers, These U.S. Cities Are Great Places to Live, Ray A. Smith, Tom Corrigan, and Jason French, February 13, 2023
Bloomberg: Remote Work Is Costing Manhattan More Than $12 Billion a Year, Emma Court and Donna Borak, February 12, 2023
Twin Cities Business: Remote Work Bubble Begins To Pop, Liz Fedor, January 31, 2023
The Wall Street Journal: The Job Market for Remote Workers Is Shrinking, Ray A. Smith, January 24, 2023
Axios: Remote work saved workers 72 minutes per day, study finds, Emily Peck, January 24, 2023
The Economist: How Technology Is Redrawing the Boundaries of the Firm, January 8, 2023
2022
Hubble Official List of Every Company’s Back-to-Office Strategy, August 22, 2022
Hybrid Work: Making it fit with your diversity, equity, and inclusion strategy, McKinsey Quarterly, April 20, 2022
EIG: How Remote Work is Shifting Population Growth Across the U.S., Adam Ozimek, April 13, 2022
2021
Bet on It: 37% of Desks Will Be Empty, Gallup, December 7, 2021
2023
National Bureau of Economic Research: Time Savings When Working From Home, January 2023
2022
Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City: Hybrid Working, Commuting Time, and the Coming Long-Term Boom in Home Construction, September 29, 2022
NBER: Work From Home and the Office Real Estate Apocalypse, Arpit Gupta, Vrinda Mittal, Stijn Vannieuwerburgh, September 2022
Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco: Housing Demand and Remote Work, John Mondragon and Johannes Wieland, May 2022
2020
SSRN: How Do Cities Change When We Work from Home?, Matt Delventhal, Eunjee Kwon, Andrii Parkhomenko, December 14, 2020
NBER: Away from Home and Back: Coordinating (Remote) Workers in 1800 and 2020, Reka Juhasz, Mara Squicciarini, Nico Voigtlaender, December 2020
2022
Bloomberg: Working From Home Is Not an Urban Escape Hatch, Justin Fox, October 5, 2022
Bloomberg: Dream On If You Think They’ll RTO, Joe Mysak, August 26, 2022
Future.com: Remote Startups Will Win the War for Top Talent, Chris Herd, August 23, 2022
World Economic Forum: Remote Work Fuels Major Diversity Boost at Meta, Spencer Feingold, July 21, 2022
Morningtar: A looming recession could force more employees to come back to the office — or never return, Jon Swartz, June 29, 2022
2021
The Atlantic: Winners and Losers of the Work-From-Home Revolution, Derek Thompson, June 14, 2021
2020
The Atlantic: Generation Work-From-Home May Never Recover, Amanda Mull, October 2020