May HFA Prepay Report Delinquency Trends and Outlook
May HFA voluntary prepayment ratios to generic counterparts were generally higher month-over-month with some exceptions in the moderately seasoned bucket. The ratios on new production Tier 1 Ginnies range from the single digits to percentages in the 20s. Tier 2 ratios are around 40%, and Tier 3 ratios are mostly in the 80% to 100% range. Potentially longer lags on HFA loans could explain the delayed slowdown in speeds within the sector relative to generic counterparts. That said, HFA S-curves have begun to normalize, and the trend should accelerate in the coming months.