Economic Commentary

During a very pivotal period for economic growth, the data releases are giving off mixed signals. Th…

October existing home sales climbed +4.3% to an annualized pace of 6.85 million units, the highest i…

Retail sales rose by just +0.3% in October, the smallest increase in six months as the back-to-schoo…

Both the headline and core consumer price indexes were unchanged in October after rising by +0.2% th…

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 638k last month, bettering the median forecast of 580k, while the unemploym…

In perhaps the quietest FOMC meeting in recent memory, Fed officials voted unanimously to hold monet…

The ISM Manufacturing Index was expected to moderate in October, but a more upbeat outlook among U.S…

As expected, the initial reading of third quarter GDP was one for the ages. The quarter-over-quarter…

Initial claims dropped significantly last week, with “only” 787k Americans requesting benefits accor…

This morning, the Commerce Department announced retail sales advanced by a better-than-expected +1.9…

Initial jobless claims filed under state programs, unexpectedly rose by over 50k for the week ending…

Time is running out for additional stimulus before the election. Senate Majority Leader McConnell ha…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

The third quarter was one for the record books as $3 trillion in CARES Act dollars invigorated consu…

The September unemployment rate dropped below 8%, +661k jobs returned to company payrolls, and prior…

This morning, there was yet another indication from the National Association of Realtors that the ho…

Few would have guessed that the housing sector (mostly flat for years) would spike amid widespread u…

Fed officials, as expected, left their monetary policy unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. The …

Retail sales rose less-than-expected in August following three months of brisk spending. Although th…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

It’s been another relatively light week for economic data. It’s not that there are fewer releases, b…

The August employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was better than expected with…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly employment report (scheduled for release on Friday morn…

It was widely expected (and generally thought to be the case anyway), but this morning at the annual…

This morning, the Commerce Department reported an unexpectedly strong +11.2% rise in durable goods o…

In yesterday’s commentary on initial jobless claims we noted that the uptick in claims fit the narra…

Initial claims for unemployment benefits had been trending lower and last Thursday’s weekly report s…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

Headline retail sales rose +1.2% in July. Although the overall increase fell short of the +2.1% medi…

TSA checkpoint numbers indicated daily passenger count reached its highest level in five months on S…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 1.76 million jobs were (re)added to company payrolls i…

This morning, the ISM non-manufacturing index surprised to the upside, as optimism rose among U.S. s…

Quarterly GDP is both the most important and least timely of the economic indicators. The second qua…

This afternoon, at the conclusion of the two-day July FOMC meeting, Fed officials left the overnight…

This morning, the Commerce Department announced new home sales had risen +13.8% in June to a 776k an…

This morning, the retail sales report topped forecasts for the second straight month. The +7.5% June…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

Equities opened down but have since moved into positive territory, while bond yields on the short en…

The second quarter began with much of the nation hunkered down to weather what many expected to be a…

There isn’t any “new normal” yet, but one of the persistent issues in this odd transition period is …

Economic releases continue to take a backseat to the recent spike in new coronavirus cases. Yesterda…

There were a considerable number of economic releases this week, but there’s no indication the finan…

On Monday, existing home sales (which have historically represented 85% to 90% of the total housing …

As Americans readjust to the coronavirus world, it’s become increasingly difficult to get a true sen…

Stocks are soaring in early trading as May retail sales absolutely crushed all expectations. Sales s…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

The idea that prices of most goods and services will fall in 2020 has been widely accepted, so inves…

The Fed’s policy-making committee emerged from its scheduled two-day meeting this afternoon with lit…

Wednesday’s giant forecast miss on the ADP employment change report had already cast doubt on dire f…

The enormous differences between expectations and actual data continues while the economic numbers s…