Economic Commentary

In this morning’s economic releases, U.S. personal income for January rose +10%, the highest percent…

Bond yields continued to climb this morning as economic numbers indicate Q1 growth is gaining moment…

Fed Chairman Jay Powell testified this morning in front of the Senate Banking Committee on the state…

My apologies to fellow Texans facing much bigger issues than quarterly GDP projections. We went 60 h…

Wednesday’s consumer price index (CPI) report was probably the highpoint of an otherwise lame week f…

Consumer prices were well behaved in January as headline CPI climbed by +0.3% and core CPI was uncha…

The January employment report was a disappointment with just 49k jobs added to company payrolls, les…

This morning, the non-manufacturing ISM report showed rising optimism among service sector purchasin…

Most analysts expect continued deceleration in the pace of GDP growth in the first quarter of 2021, …

In the official statement released this afternoon at the conclusion of the two-day FOMC meeting, Fed…

A flurry of better-than-expected economic releases hints the first quarter could be a bit stronger t…

Consumer spending was expected to be weak, but this morning’s release of the December retail sales r…

This morning’s key economic news was (yet again) deterioration in the labor market. Initial jobless …

Non-farm payrolls dropped by -140k in December, well below the puny +50k expected increase. The esta…

This morning, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) non-manufacturing index for December climbed…

The third quarter of 2020 lived up to lofty expectations with GDP expanding at a remarkable +33.4% a…

Initial claims unexpectedly climbed to a three-month high last week with 885k Americans filing for f…

The biggest question going into an otherwise humdrum FOMC meeting was whether the Fed would shift it…

Headline retail sales dropped by -1.1% last month according to the U.S. Commerce Department as the w…

At midnight tonight, if lawmakers are unable to pass a short-term spending bill, the federal governm…

In today’s economic releases, mortgage applications for the week ending December 4th were down -1.2%…

It’s rare that a weaker-than-expected employment report is perceived as good news, but that’s the ca…

The economic storyline has been constant for weeks: solid but moderating data, good news on the vacc…

During a very pivotal period for economic growth, the data releases are giving off mixed signals. Th…

October existing home sales climbed +4.3% to an annualized pace of 6.85 million units, the highest i…

Retail sales rose by just +0.3% in October, the smallest increase in six months as the back-to-schoo…

Both the headline and core consumer price indexes were unchanged in October after rising by +0.2% th…

Nonfarm payrolls grew by 638k last month, bettering the median forecast of 580k, while the unemploym…

In perhaps the quietest FOMC meeting in recent memory, Fed officials voted unanimously to hold monet…

The ISM Manufacturing Index was expected to moderate in October, but a more upbeat outlook among U.S…

As expected, the initial reading of third quarter GDP was one for the ages. The quarter-over-quarter…

Initial claims dropped significantly last week, with “only” 787k Americans requesting benefits accor…

This morning, the Commerce Department announced retail sales advanced by a better-than-expected +1.9…

Initial jobless claims filed under state programs, unexpectedly rose by over 50k for the week ending…

Time is running out for additional stimulus before the election. Senate Majority Leader McConnell ha…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

The third quarter was one for the record books as $3 trillion in CARES Act dollars invigorated consu…

The September unemployment rate dropped below 8%, +661k jobs returned to company payrolls, and prior…

This morning, there was yet another indication from the National Association of Realtors that the ho…

Few would have guessed that the housing sector (mostly flat for years) would spike amid widespread u…

Fed officials, as expected, left their monetary policy unchanged at the September FOMC meeting. The …

Retail sales rose less-than-expected in August following three months of brisk spending. Although th…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

It’s been another relatively light week for economic data. It’s not that there are fewer releases, b…

The August employment report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) was better than expected with…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) monthly employment report (scheduled for release on Friday morn…

It was widely expected (and generally thought to be the case anyway), but this morning at the annual…

This morning, the Commerce Department reported an unexpectedly strong +11.2% rise in durable goods o…

In yesterday’s commentary on initial jobless claims we noted that the uptick in claims fit the narra…

Initial claims for unemployment benefits had been trending lower and last Thursday’s weekly report s…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

Headline retail sales rose +1.2% in July. Although the overall increase fell short of the +2.1% medi…

TSA checkpoint numbers indicated daily passenger count reached its highest level in five months on S…

The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) reported 1.76 million jobs were (re)added to company payrolls i…

This morning, the ISM non-manufacturing index surprised to the upside, as optimism rose among U.S. s…

Quarterly GDP is both the most important and least timely of the economic indicators. The second qua…

This afternoon, at the conclusion of the two-day July FOMC meeting, Fed officials left the overnight…

This morning, the Commerce Department announced new home sales had risen +13.8% in June to a 776k an…

This morning, the retail sales report topped forecasts for the second straight month. The +7.5% June…