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Economic news and data drive Fed interest rate policy and financial market movement. The problem for many investors is sorting through the massive volume of news and numbers to separate the critical information from the noise. Our economic commentaries provide clear explanation of key events in layman’s terms, as well as regular interest rate updates.

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April Prices Run Hot

05/12/2021

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by a seasonally-adjusted +0.8% in April, well above the +0.2% me…

Economic Commentary

by Scott McIntyre, CFA

April Prices Run Hot

Markets Rally on Shocking Payroll Miss

Purchasing Managers Indicate Inability to Meet Demand

Q1 GDP is Solid, but Short of the Whisper

Market Yawns as Fed Treads Familiar Path

Spring Housing Data Still Indicating a Hot Summer

Housing Starts Accelerate to Fill Severe Shortage of Homes

Giant Step Up in Consumer Spending to Push Q1 GDP Higher

Price Pressure on the Rise, with More to Come

2021 Q1 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook

Surveys Show Service Sector Quickly Gaining Momentum

March Jobs Report Crushes Forecasts

Strong ISM Report is Another Log on the Fire

Confidence Jump Hints at Future Spending Surge

Lost Service Sector Jobs on Verge of Return

Housing Cools in February

Patient Fed Shrugs off Possibility of Overheating

Cold Weather and Empty Pockets Slow Spending

The Fed's Role in Rescuing Short Yields

Improved Employment Report Reflects Receding Virus Cases

Powell Misses on Attempt to Calm Markets

Yield Climb Resumes on Inflation Concerns

The Coiled Spring of Pent-Up Demand

Bond Yields Rise, Adds Fuel to Q1 Growth Story

Markets Still Jittery Despite Powell's Assurances

First Quarter GDP Outlook Suddenly Much Brighter

Economic News Scraps from a Light Week

Future Inflation Likely to be Much Warmer, but January Prices are Still Cool

Weakening Labor Picture Strengthens Stimulus Bid

Purchasing Managers Expect Better Days

Rising Income and Elevated Savings Bode Well for Future Spending

Fed Stands Pat; Powell Dodges GameStop Question

More Aggressive Virus Approach Could Weigh on Q1 GDP

Less Consumer Spending Over Holidays, but Help on Way

Unemployment Filings Soar as COVID Asserts Itself

December Job Loss Increases Urgency for Aid

Optimism Reigns Despite Surging Virus

2020 Q4 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook

Rising Unemployment Claims Pressures Congress to Act Now

Steady Fed Holds the Line on Asset Purchases

Virus-Tinted Consumer Spending Sags in November

Congress Bickers as Midnight Shutdown Looms

Economic Odds and Ends

Disappointing Payroll Report Argues for Fiscal Support

Economic Data Still Mostly Solid as the Virus Spreads

A Mixed Bag for the Holidays

No End in Sight to Housing Boom

Slowing Retail Sales Hints at Slower Q4

Inflation Retreats as Virus Threat Rises

Employment Picture Brightens in October

Fed is Quiet as Election Results Play Out

ISM Manufacturing Index Indicates Solid Start to Q4

The Historical Third Quarter GDP Report and Beyond

Strong Data Supports Record Q3 GDP Growth

Consumer Spending is Plenty Brisk at Quarter End

Labor Market Gains Fading

Stimulus Talks Flop / Consumer Prices Moderate

Notes on the October Bloomberg Economists Survey

2020 Q3 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook

Markets Ignore Solid September Job Gains

Still More Data Supporting the Robust Third Quarter Rebound

Housing Booms While Delinquencies Rise

Fed Expects to Hold Rates at Zero at Least Through 2023

August Retail Sales Moderate

Notes on the September Bloomberg Economists Survey

Rising Claims Suggest Moderation of Job Gains

Labor Conditions Improving as Govt. Support Fades

ADP Report Indicates Slowing Pace of Rehires

Fed Announces Shift in Inflation Policy

Auto Production Drives July Business Spending

Record-Low Mortgage Rates Drive Housing Recovery

Unemployment Claims Rise as Job Market Remains Sick

Notes on the August Bloomberg Economists Survey

Federal Aid Fuels Consumer Spending in July

08/14/2020

On a Wing and a Prayer; Airline Struggles Continue

Jobs Continue to Return...but at a Slower Pace

Purchasing Managers Upbeat Despite Labor Uncertainty