Economic Commentary

There isn’t any “new normal” yet, but one of the persistent issues in this odd transition period is …

Economic releases continue to take a backseat to the recent spike in new coronavirus cases. Yesterda…

There were a considerable number of economic releases this week, but there’s no indication the finan…

On Monday, existing home sales (which have historically represented 85% to 90% of the total housing …

As Americans readjust to the coronavirus world, it’s become increasingly difficult to get a true sen…

Stocks are soaring in early trading as May retail sales absolutely crushed all expectations. Sales s…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and intere…

The idea that prices of most goods and services will fall in 2020 has been widely accepted, so inves…

The Fed’s policy-making committee emerged from its scheduled two-day meeting this afternoon with lit…

Wednesday’s giant forecast miss on the ADP employment change report had already cast doubt on dire f…

The enormous differences between expectations and actual data continues while the economic numbers s…

Analysts and economists are struggling mightily with their forecasts and it’s tough to conclude that…

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and interest rate ou…

March retail sales had shown the biggest single month decline on record, but April sales were exceed…

This morning, the Producer Price Index (PPI) for April fell -1.3%, the biggest monthly decline on re…

This morning, the release of the April employment report brought both shockingly bad data and a sens…

Detroit automakers are set to resume limited production on May 18 after being shuttered for the last…

The official statement released immediately following today’s FOMC meeting showed Fed officials made…

Congressional members gathered in D.C. this week to overwhelmingly pass an additional $484 billion a…

The International Energy Agency (IEA) recently warned that escalating crude oil supply "threatens to…

Stocks are down today on a wave of bad news. Most of the standard variety economic releases were exp…

Each month, Bloomberg surveys 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and interest rate outl…

Most experts had been expecting Congress to announce additional rescue/relief/stimulus programs. Few…

The grueling final weeks of March made the first 91 days of 2020 seem like a lifetime. The economic …

The first outright payroll decline in 9 1/2 years abruptly ended a record string of 113 months of po…

It seems like the economy has been shuttered for ages, but the reality for most of us is closer to t…

Late yesterday, the Senate unanimously passed a $2 trillion relief package intended primarily to mit…

It was another down day for stocks as the financial markets reflect uncertainty surrounding the inab…

Trying to keep up with central bank actions, as well as all proposed and passed legislation is exhau…

The news is coming fast and furious as Congress and the administration scramble to add support. Stoc…

The FOMC surprised the markets for the second time in two weeks, this time with a 100 basis point in…

Yesterday’s memorable market crash got the attention of global central bankers who have rallied thei…

The coronavirus hit the National Basketball Association (NBA) and Hollywood yesterday, sounding a de…

It had simply been a matter of time, but the World Health Organization (WHO) just declared the Covid…

There are more questions than answers right now, as the financial markets try to secure footing. Yes…

Normally, a blowout employment report would boost stocks and drive bond yields higher. Not today. No…

The coordinated effort by global central banks to ease monetary policy continues this week …for bett…

Stocks swung wildly in early trading before taking a decisive plunge as investors reacted to words o…

By unanimous vote, the Fed cut the overnight funds target rate by 50 basis points this morning in an…

After shedding more than 3900 points or -13.4% in seven trading days, the DOW has rebounded sharply,…

On CNBC’s Squawk Box, former Fed Governor Kevin Warsh floated the idea of a coordinated emergency re…

Officials from the Center for Disease Control (CDC) urged the public to prepare for the inevitable s…

The 30-year Treasury bond has plunged to 1.89% this morning. If this level holds, it will be the low…

Over a one-week period ending February 12th, Bloomberg News surveyed 71 of the nation’s top economis…

Robust consumer spending drove U.S. economic growth in 2019 in the absence of business investment. B…

Earlier this week, Fed Chairman Jay Powell, in a two-part Congressional testimony on the state of th…

Nonfarm payrolls rose by +225k in January, topping the +165k median forecast. The number of construc…

U.S. bond yields rose for the third straight day after testing historical lows last week as recent e…

The ISM manufacturing index climbed above 50 for the first time since last July, signaling expansion…

The initial reading of fourth quarter GDP growth came in at an annualized rate of +2.1%, exactly mat…

This afternoon, the Fed held the overnight target steady at 1.50% to 1.75% while making a technical …

With concerns over trade and a government shutdown pushed aside for the foreseeable future, the bond…

The monthly retail sales report is typically a confusing mix of data and revisions that can be diffi…

Over a one-week period ending January 9th, Bloomberg News surveyed 71 of the nation’s top economists…

The October and November employment data had been distorted by the General Motors strike, but with t…

As December began, there were an unusually high number of potential disruptions capable of derailing…

The two-week holiday calm came to an abrupt end last night with a major escalation of military tensi…

Over a one-week period ending December 12th, Bloomberg News surveyed 71 of the nation’s top economis…

Yesterday afternoon, the House of Representatives approved a $1.4 trillion dollar spending package t…

Details unveiled in recent days of the Phase One trade agreement between the United States and China…

It was expected to be a big week for economic news…and indeed it was. With little exception, the new…

The monthly labor market report surprised to the upside as a whopping +266k new jobs were added to c…

The next couple of weeks could present some challenges to investors who have enjoyed a recent period…

The widely-expected U.S. - China trade agreement, which was reportedly “very close” last week, appea…

All three major U.S. stock indexes rallied to new highs today as the Chinese media reported China is…

The House passed a continuing resolution to fund the government through mid-December. The bill has m…

The financial markets had concluded that most of the major hurdles have been cleared, a trade deal w…

Fed Chairman Jay Powell, in his prepared remarks to the Congressional Joint Economic Committee this …

Over a one-week period ending November 6th, Bloomberg News surveyed 70 of the nation’s top economist…

The 10-year Treasury yield has quietly climbed from 1.69% at close last Thursday to 1.93% this morni…

Fed Chairman Jay Powell had recently described the labor market as “strong,” but until this morning …

As the day began, fed funds futures were implying 95% odds the Fed would cut the target rate another…

Recall that the August housing numbers were surprisingly strong across the board, leading a number o…

It isn’t getting any easier to piece together a coherent economic narrative. Several indicators flas…

Headline retail sales dropped -0.3% in September, halting an impressive six-month streak of solid ga…

Over a one-week period ending October 10th, Bloomberg News surveyed 67 of the nation’s top economist…

After raising the overnight fed funds target rate three times in 2017 and four in 2018, Fed official…

The financial markets appear satisfied with the September employment report. On the whole, it wasn’t…

The Institute for Supply Management’s (ISM) non-manufacturing index fell from 56.4 to a three-year l…

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) manufacturing index dropped to 47.8 in September, the seco…

This morning, new home sales for the month of August rose +7.1% to a seasonally-adjusted annualized …

Many of you have probably noticed a dramatic increase in the daily yields on your money market funds…

A divided FOMC announced another 25 basis point cut in the fed funds rate, bringing the lower band o…

Over a three-day period ending September 11th, Bloomberg News surveyed 70 of the nation’s top econom…

Bond yields rose for the ninth straight day as the U.S. consumer contributed to a recent string of b…

Tucked away on page 18 of yesterday’s Wall Street Journal were two contrasting letters to the editor…

An inability to fully digest a massive amount of bond supply entering the market, along with expecta…

On the surface, the August labor report was clearly a disappointment. Nonfarm payrolls grew by just …

Stocks are rallying for the third straight day and bond yields are moving higher on a combination of…

As last week drew to a close, trade war hostilities were heating up. On Friday morning, China announ…

The Federal Reserve and in particular its monetary policy setting Federal Open Market Committee have…

China stole the thunder from the Fed early this morning with a surprise announcement of additional t…

Early news from the annual two-day central bankers symposium in Jackson Hole, Wyoming suggested that…

Bond yields are creeping slightly higher and stocks are up for the second straight day in the midst …

In the last 11 trading days, the DOW has been up more than 300 points three times, and down approxim…

Over a five-day period ending August 7th, Bloomberg News surveyed 71 of the nation’s top economists …

The stock market is taking another beating this morning and bond yields continue to fall as the drum…

Early this morning, China responded severely to last week’s announcement that the U.S. would slap ad…

Although the release of the July employment report is big news, the dominant news continues to be tr…

By an 8-2 count, the Fed’s policy-making committee lowered the overnight rate target by 25 basis poi…

The Fed’s policy-making FOMC is scheduled to meet this week with an rate announcement expected at 1:…

The longest economic expansion in history has now entered its 11th year and the Fed suddenly appears…

Over a six-day period ending July 11th, Bloomberg News surveyed 76 of the nation’s top economists fo…

The U.S. ended the second quarter in the midst of the longest economic expansion in history at 121 m…

Bond yields jumped in early trading as the June employment signaled much stronger job growth than ec…

On Saturday, the U.S. and China agreed to restart talks that have been stalled since early May. Pres…

We can’t recall ever seeing a mid-month Bloomberg economist survey, but so many opinions changed aft…