2019 Q3 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook

After raising the overnight fed funds target rate three times in 2017 and four in 2018, Fed officials reversed course in 2019’s third quarter and cut the funds target twice. Quarter point easing moves at the July and September FOMC meetings, which brought the target down to a range of 1.75%-2.00% were fully expected…but not entirely supported by economic data. Somewhat ironically, in the same quarter, the longest economic expansion in U.S. history entered its eleventh year. It’s possible to imagine a scenario where the expansion limps along for years, and just as easy to envision a recession starting as soon as next year.

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