2020 Q2 Economic Recap and Rate Outlook

The second quarter began with much of the nation hunkered down to weather what many expected to be a very intense, but short economic storm. The sheer amount of virus-related information gathered and released during the quarter was staggering, and because the contraction happened so quickly, many of the economic numbers were immediately too stale to be relevant. Analysts were lost. It was like putting together a jigsaw puzzle without a picture on the box. As a result, forecasts were often wildly off the mark and many subsequent data revisions were epic in size, but in the complete absence of certainty, the primary focus was on jobs.

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