Ho-Hum Jobs Report Lowers Fed Urgency

The financial markets appear satisfied with the September employment report. On the whole, it wasn’t bad, but it wasn’t good either. What the mixed report is likely to do is keep the Fed from cutting 50 basis points at the October meeting, a possibility that surfaced earlier in the week with extreme weakness in the two ISM reports. The business survey showed nonfarm payrolls rose by +136k last month, just below the +145k median forecast. However, prior month revisions more than made up the difference with a total of +45k additional jobs added to July and August tallies. Nonfarm payroll increases averaged +223K for all of 2018 and began 2019 with a huge +312k January gain, but have since averaged +142k. Take it for what it’s worth, in the midst of a record 108 straight months of payroll gains, some slowing is to be expected.

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