Labor Market Shocker Hints at an Early End to Recession

Wednesday’s giant forecast miss on the ADP employment change report had already cast doubt on dire forecasts for continued massive job loss in the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) May report. This morning, the actual nonfarm payroll numbers was a shocker for the ages. Whereas the median forecast had indicated U.S. businesses would shed another 7.5 million jobs, the reality was a gain of 2.5 million, easily the largest single month increase in the history of the company survey going back to 1939. Somehow, forecasters missed by around 10 million.

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