Less Bad is the New Good
The enormous differences between expectations and actual data continues while the economic numbers seem to be improving a bit quicker than expected. This morning, the ADP employment change report for May (a preview to Friday’s BLS labor report) showed a private sector payroll decline of just 2.7 million. Although a drop of this magnitude would be shocking in pre-virus days, it’s actually considered relatively good news as the median forecast had indicated a significantly larger drop of 9 million. In addition, the previously reported 20.2 million payroll decline for April was revised upward to a smaller decline of 19.6 million.