Notes on the September Bloomberg Economists Survey
Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and interest rate outlook. The most recent survey was conducted Sept. 4-10, 2020.
The Bloomberg median GDP forecast for Q3 2020 is +24.8% (annualized), an increase from +20% in the August survey.
The survey indicates an 8.0% unemployment rate in Q4. This is down from the August survey, and slightly below the current headline unemployment rate of 8.4%.
Economists seem to believe overall CPI will return to the Fed’s +2.0% target by summer, while core PCE will remain below.
None of the economists surveyed expect the Fed to cut the overnight rate below zero.