Notes on the September Bloomberg Economists Survey

Once a month, Bloomberg surveys more than 70 of the nation’s economists on their economic and interest rate outlook. The most recent survey was conducted Sept. 4-10, 2020.

  • The Bloomberg median GDP forecast for Q3 2020 is +24.8% (annualized), an increase from +20% in the August survey.

  • The survey indicates an 8.0% unemployment rate in Q4. This is down from the August survey, and slightly below the current headline unemployment rate of 8.4%.

  • Economists seem to believe overall CPI will return to the Fed’s +2.0% target by summer, while core PCE will remain below.

  • None of the economists surveyed expect the Fed to cut the overnight rate below zero.

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