29 Days

  • 29 days until the 2020 elections and the recent spread of COVID-19 is not likely to bring lawmakers closer to a fifth phase of COVID-19 relief.

  • The Senate controls the path to a fifth phase agreement, and it is unlikely to occur before the election unless something significant changes in the landscape and influences the Senate to act.

  • We have contemplated how different election results could impact the market and municipal bonds in Election 2020: Results Will Impact the Economy, Markets, and Municipal Bonds.

  • New polling data is not only showing an improved outlook for former V.P. Joe Biden to take the White House, but forecasts continue to expect Democrats have a better than even chance (65%) to take the Senate. This is the scenario where we see the highest level of impact on municipals.

  • Public finance downgrades will come, and they will likely outpace upgrades for years. It does not make sense to question the pace of what we inevitably will see occur. The true question(s) are where in the country they will (and will not) happen and the magnitude of credit deterioration and downgrades. Some parts of the country could be hit severely while others hardly at all.

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