Mobility Index Falling in Select States, Warns Recent Improvements Could Be At Risk

  • There is a potential for the reopening rollback to become more widespread across the U.S. as and/or if infections continue to rise.

  • It should come as no surprise that pandemics can produce waves of infection. In the past 100 years the deadliest pandemics including the 1) 1918 H1N1 (Spanish flu), 2) the 1957 H2N2 flu and 3) and the 1968 H3N2 flu all experienced multiple waves.

  • The Dallas Fed’s Mobility and Engagement Index (MEI) is generally leveling out. The MEI data in Texas and Illinois is falling.

  • Going forward we may expect to see economic movement that improves for a number of weeks as it has since the end of April – but then drops off if policymakers need to tighten restrictions for health purposes.

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