The New Surge Renders Thursday’s June Jobs Numbers Meaningless, Almost Ensures Federal Relief in July

  • The June change in nonfarm payrolls and the new unemployment rate are meaningless. The new surge in infection and resultant policy adjustments are going to weigh heavily on near-term economic results. July numbers will be a better indicator.

  • COVID-19 infections are surging. For the week of June 18, the number of weekly confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the U.S. set a record: 218,248. It is possible we see over 250,000 confirmed cases for the week of June 25.

  • Florida, Texas, and California are among the states making re-closing policy adjustments in response to the surge in infections.

  • We expect this infection wave is going to push Washington lawmakers to create another COVID-19 relief package sometime at the end of July.

  • We expect that in the next few weeks the Dallas Fed’s Mobility and Engagement Index data will worsen and economic activity to suffer.

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