• US protein stocks are low. Following the MY 22/23 drought, US stocks of high protein wheat (HRW + HRS) are low which can support old crop cash prices.
• Planted US winter wheat acres are materially higher. HRW planted acres are +10% YoY.  SRW acres are +20% YoY.  Large acreage increases and the possibility of a larger crop can pressure prices in MY 23/24.
• HRW production: “Beware the ides of March”.  Acute dryness impacted the MY 23/24 crop during planting.  The lingering drought remains intact inside key producing states.
• US wheats are uncompetitive in the global market. A strong US dollar combined with tight US stocks, and robust global supplies has made US wheat uncompetitive against Australian, Canadian, EU, German, Romanian Russian, and Ukraine milling wheats.
• As corn supplies are forecast to expand which limits wheat feeding. This will incrementally lower domestic use.
• It is unlikely that Russia will not repeat a record wheat harvest and export program. This can help US the regain incremental market share in select export destinations.

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