2025 Municipal Bond Analyst Survey

01/22/2026

By Tom Kozlik
Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy
Hilltop Securities Inc.

Key Survey Findings

“Politics & Geopolitics” (62%) was cited as the most important issue or trend influencing the municipal bond market right now, based on our survey conducted in Dec. 2025.
Last year “Politics” (40%) ranked as the second most important issue or trend influencing the municipal bond market, just behind “Infrastructure” (44%).
90 municipal bond analysts participated in our 2025 survey, and 55% were buy-side participants.
“Technological change” (32%) rose to the third most important issue or trend, likely reflecting the growing influence of artificial intelligence (AI).
Almost half (46%) of surveyed analysts expect the results of the 2026 midterm elections to be “very” or “somewhat” impactful toward the public finance sector.
Nearly half (49%) of the municipal bond analysts surveyed are optimistic about how municipal credit will evolve in 2026.
A higher share (85%) of municipal analysts surveyed expect AI to be the most impactful technology for the municipal bond market & public finance over the next decade, up from 77% in 2024.
Roughly one in two respondents (49%) see AI as a net negative for the U.S. labor market in 2026, expecting job displacement to outweigh the gains.
Daily generative AI (GenAI) use among municipal bond analysts surged to 34% in 2025, up from 3% in 2024.

“Politics & Geopolitics” (62%) was cited as the most important issue or trend influencing the municipal bond market right now, based on our survey conducted in Dec. 2025 and Jan. 2026. Last year “Politics” (40%) ranked as the second most important issue or trend influencing the municipal bond market, just behind “Infrastructure” (44%). Public pensions used to be analysts’ top concern year after year. In 2025, only 7% named it as a top issue, down from 17% in 2024.

This year, 90 municipal bond analysts participated in the survey, and 55% were buy-side participants. Cybersecurity slipped down analysts’ priority list: with only 13% naming it as a top issue in 2025, down from 24% in 2024. Infrastructure was the top issue in 2024 (44%), but in 2025 it slipped to fourth place (31%).

Almost half (46%) of surveyed analysts expect the results of the 2026 midterm elections to be “very” or “somewhat” impactful toward the public finance sector. Nearly half (49%) of the municipal bond analysts surveyed are optimistic about how municipal credit will evolve in 2026. Just 4% of analysts in our 2025 survey possess a “very pessimistic” view of municipal credit in 2026, expecting broad weakening in credit fundamentals.

A higher share (85%) of municipal analysts surveyed expect AI to be the most impactful technology for the municipal bond market & public finance over the next decade, up from 77% in 2024. Interest in electronic trading platforms is climbing as well, with 35% of surveyed municipal analysts naming them as the most impactful technology for the municipal bond market and public finance over the next decade, up from 29% in 2024. Municipal bond analysts are putting less emphasis on cybersecurity as the technology they expect to matter most: 29% selected it in 2025, down from 56% in 2024.

Roughly one in two respondents (49%) see AI as a net negative for the U.S. labor market in 2026, expecting job displacement to outweigh the gains. Daily generative AI (GenAI) use among municipal bond analysts surged to 34% in 2025, up from 3% in 2024. By comparison, 13% of leaders in the 2025 Hilltop Public Finance Leaders Survey (Sept. 2025) reported using GenAI daily.

Description and Methodology of the 2025 Municipal Bond Analyst Survey

The results are based on a survey conducted by HilltopSecurities in December 2025 & January 2026. The above data was collected from 90 municipal bond credit analysts/ specialists. Analysts from the rating agencies were not asked to participate in the survey.

Please email Tom Kozlik at tom.kozlik@hilltopsecurities.com if you are a municipal bond credit analyst/specialist and would like to participate in the 2026 survey.

We would like to thank everyone who participated in this year’s 2025 Municipal Bond Analyst Survey.

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Readers may view all of the HilltopSecurities Municipal Commentary here.

About Tom Kozlik

As Head of Public Policy and Municipal Strategy, Tom Kozlik advises HilltopSecurities’ businesses and clients on strategies related to U.S. public policy, public finance, and infrastructure. He publishes regular commentary that provides insight into current trends affecting these themes across a variety of sectors and geographic regions. Kozlik is frequently featured in print, digital, and broadcast news segments and regularly offers his expertise as a keynote speaker and panelist at industry conferences and events across the country. He can be reached at 214.859.9439 or tom.kozlik@hilltopsecurities.com.

The paper/commentary was prepared by HilltopSecurities (HTS). It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information provided in this paper was obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable; however, it is not guaranteed to be correct, complete, or current, and is not intended to imply or establish standards of care applicable to any attorney or advisor in any particular circumstances. The statements within constitute the views of HTS Public Finance as of the date of the document and may differ from the views of other divisions/departments of Hilltop Securities Inc. In addition, the views are subject to change without notice. This paper represents historical information only and is not an indication of future performance. This material has not been prepared in accordance with the guidelines or requirements to promote investment research, it is not a research report and is not intended as such. Sources available upon request.

Hilltop Securities Inc. is a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and municipal advisor firm that does not provide tax or legal advice. HTS is a wholly owned subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HTH) located at 717 N. Harwood St., Suite 3400, Dallas, Texas 75201, (214) 859-1800, 833-4HILLTOP

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