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By Scott McIntyre, CFA
Co-Head of Investment Management
HilltopSecurities Asset Management
Both stocks and bonds are rallying today while crude oil prices are lower after American and Israeli news outlets reported the Trump Administration has delivered a 15-point plan to end the war on Iran. Details of the proposal are unclear, but according to sources familiar with the plan, the U.S. will consider a 30-day ceasefire allowing time to negotiate specifics.
The U.S. plan reportedly calls for Iran to end strikes on regional energy facilities, complete dismantling of Iranian nuclear capabilities, and a permanent commitment from Iran that it will surrender its enriched uranium and never develop nuclear weapons. In addition, the Strait of Hormuz would be declared a free maritime zone and Iran would stop arming and supporting proxies in the region.
While apparent efforts to reach an agreement are positive for the financial markets, there’s little indication that military pressure in the region has eased. Iran continues to bomb neighboring countries while the U.S. plans to deploy thousands of additional troops to the Middle East.
Although Iran has yet to indicate willingness to negotiate with the U.S., it has laid out its terms for ending the conflict. These terms include the lifting of all sanctions, recognition of Iran’s legitimate rights, payment of war reparations and guarantees against future attacks. In addition, Iran seeks the closure of all U.S. military bases in the region and formalization of its informal dominance over the Strait of Hormuz.
In other words, there’s currently very little common ground except for the hope that fighting will end. …and hope is never a strategy.
About Scott McIntyre, CFA
As HilltopSecurities Asset Management’s Co-Head of Investment Management, Scott McIntyre specializes in investment management services and is responsible for the management, oversight and trade supervision of more than $30 billion in institutional fixed income assets for HilltopSecurities’ public sector municipal clients. Scott also provides investment advice and consulting, reviews local government investment policies, formulates overall investment strategies, evaluates account performance and oversees the day-to-day operations. He is a member of the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) Institute and a CFA Charterholder, a two-term advisor to the GFOA Treasury and Investment Management (TIM) committee, a Registered Investment Advisor, and holds FINRA Series 7, 24, 63, and 65 licenses.
About Greg Warner, CTP
As HilltopSecurities Asset Management’s Co-Head of Investment Management, Greg Warner specializes in investment management services and is responsible for the management and oversight of more than $30 billion in institutional fixed income assets for HilltopSecurities’ public sector municipal clients. Greg coordinates all client services and portfolio management duties, including security evaluation and portfolio analysis, trading, investment reporting, board presentations, and monitoring of broker-dealer relationships. He is an advisory committee member to the Texas Association of Counties, a member of the Government Treasurers’ Organization of Texas (GTOT), a Registered Investment Advisor, a Certified Treasury Professional (CTP) and holds FINRA Series 7, 63, and 65 licenses.
About Matt Harris, CFA
As HilltopSecurities Asset Management’s Senior Portfolio Advisor, Matt Harris specializes in investment management services for public sector municipal clients. He developed his experience in the banking industry, supporting balance sheet management, interest rate risk analysis, liquidity planning, and investment strategy implementation. At HilltopSecurities, he works closely with clients to develop and implement customized investment strategies, oversees account documentation and reporting, and assists clients with the public funds depository review process, including competitive RFP evaluations. Harris is a member of the CFA Institute and a CFA Charterholder, a Registered Investment Advisor, and holds FINRA Series 7, 63, and 66 licenses.
The paper/commentary was prepared by HilltopSecurities (HTS). It is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal or investment advice, nor is it an offer or a solicitation of an offer to buy or sell any investment or other specific product. Information provided in this paper was obtained from sources that are believed to be reliable; however, it is not guaranteed to be correct, complete, or current, and is not intended to imply or establish standards of care applicable to any attorney or advisor in any particular circumstances. The statements within constitute the views of HTS as of the date of the document and may differ from the views of other divisions/departments of Hilltop Securities Inc. and its affiliates. In addition, the views are subject to change without notice. This paper represents historical information only and is not an indication of future performance. This material has not been prepared in accordance with the guidelines or requirements to promote investment research, it is not a research report and is not intended as such. Sources available upon request.
Hilltop Securities Inc. is a registered broker-dealer, registered investment adviser and municipal advisor firm that does not provide tax or legal advice. HTS is a wholly owned subsidiary of Hilltop Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: HTH) located at 717 N. Harwood St., Suite 3400, Dallas, Texas 75201, (214) 859-1800, 833-4HILLTOP.