Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Bonds Little Changed After Delayed Retail Sales and PPI Reports

In the delayed November report, retail sales rose a solid +0.6%, topping the +0.5% median forecast and rebounding from a...

Bonds Steady After December CPI as Investors Await Tariff Ruling

The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in on the cool side of expectations, although the bond market’s muted reaction...

Mixed Employment Report to Keep Fed Squarely on Hold

The December labor report indicated the divide between company payroll growth and unemployment continues to widen. Fed officials will take...

POTUS’ Call for $200B in (GSE?) MBS Purchases – Potential Market Impact

What happened? President Trump wrote a social media post late Thursday afternoon that he had asked his representatives (presumably the...

Lower Trade Deficit and Improved Labor Outlook Support Fed Pause

The U.S. trade deficit for October unexpectedly plunged from $48.1b to $29.4b, the smallest since 2009. Analysts were, once again,...

Economic Summary – Q4 2025

The federal government was shuttered for nearly half of the fourth quarter, delaying traditional economic data releases and forcing analysts...

ISM Surveys Indicate Manufacturing Slowed Further While Services Shot Higher in December

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), one of the oldest organizations in supply chain management, releases its Manufacturing and Services...

Fastest GDP Growth in Two Years Signals Fed Pause

The U.S. economy, once again, topped expectations as Q3 GDP unexpectedly rose at a +4.3% inflation-adjusted, annualized quarterly rate, the...

Consumer Inflation Drops in Admittedly Messy CPI Release

The impact of the 43-day government shutdown was evident in a surprisingly benign CPI release this morning as November consumer...

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