The December Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in on the cool side of expectations, although the bond market’s muted reaction suggests investors have discounted the still noisy BLS calculations as the Supreme Court tariff ruling looms. Overall consumer prices rose +0.3% last month and +2.7% year-over-year, matching median forecasts. However, core CPI increased by just +0.2% in December and +2.6% for the year, both 0.1 percentage points less than expected.

With the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) closed during the 43-day government shutdown, there was no price data collected for October while November data collection was incomplete. Year-over-year price numbers should be reliable, but month-over-month numbers are still debatable in some cases.

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