As the third quarter began, investors and Fed officials had already concluded rate cuts would begin sometime in 2024, with the timing and magnitude being data-dependent. Slower GDP growth and falling price pressures had allowed the Bank of Canada, the Bank of England, and the European Central Bank to begin easing monetary policy in the summer months, but the unexpected bump in U.S. inflation during the first quarter had infected Fed officials with caution that required time to heal.

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