Fed Easing Now Certain as Consumer Inflation Eases

10/24/2025

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) wasn’t as warm as expected, adding certainty to next week’s widely-expected quarter point rate cut and solidifying the chances of a reduction in December. The overall rate of consumer inflation increased +0.3% last month, below both the +0.4% median forecast and the +0.4% August gain. On a year-over-year basis, overall CPI climbed from +2.9% to +3.0% but was slightly cooler than the +3.1% forecast.

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