The U.S. trade deficit for October unexpectedly plunged from $48.1b to $29.4b, the smallest since 2009. Analysts were, once again, wildly off on their estimates – the median forecasted trade deficit among the 28 economists polled by Bloomberg was $58.7b.

There were two primary reasons for the lower deficit. Nonmonetary gold exports rose by $10.1 billon, accounting for the entirety of the $7.8b overall rise in exports, while imported pharmaceuticals fell from $28.2b to $13.9b, more than accounting for the $7.8b total drop in imports. The huge month-to-month volatility in pharmaceuticals reflects drugmakers adapting to the September threat of a 100% tariff on imported drugs.

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