With the December FOMC meeting less than a week away and committee members muted in the midst of their mandated 10-day quiet period, the probability of a third straight quarter point rate cut has become a near certainty. The argument that Fed officials would have insufficient data to make that decision has been largely dismissed by the market. The bottom line is that available private sector employment numbers have been too weak to ignore, while consumer confidence appears to be crumbling just before the holidays.

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