Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Economic Growth Improves and Inflation Rises, but Bond Yields Retreat on Tech Concerns

This morning, the Bureau of Economic Analysis reported the U.S. economy grew at a better-than-expected +3.4% inflation-adjusted annualized pace in...

Less Is More at the Warsh Fed

As expected, the Fed voted 10-2 this afternoon to hold the overnight rate target steady at 3.75% to 4.00%. The...

US Housing Continues to Struggle

One area where higher rates are clearly having an impact is, of course, the housing sector. A disappointing round of...

Despite Rising Producer Prices, Warsh is Silent on October Fed Meeting

Last night, Fed Chair Kevin Warsh addressed global financial leaders at an International Monetary Fund (IMF) forum in Bangkok.

Inflation Heats Up, Rate Hike Odds Rise

Bond yields had generally been trending lower over the past two weeks with the expectation that the Fed would hold...

US Economic Update: Third Quarter 2026

The dominant economic story of the third quarter was an alarming rise in bond yields all along the curve. Although...

FOMC Minutes Reinforce Higher-for-Longer Narrative

The minutes from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting confirmed that Fed officials view inflation as the dominant risk, and indicated...

Fed Patience Gains Support as Labor Market Softens

Bonds are rallying for the second straight day as whip-sawed investors now expect the most recent bout of labor market...

October Hike Probability Drops after Flurry of Friendly Data

Unexpected cooling of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a surprisingly dovish comment from a prominent FOMC member, combined to...

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