Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Fed Easing Now Certain as Consumer Inflation Eases

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) wasn’t as warm as expected, adding certainty to next week’s widely-expected quarter point rate...

No Progress as the Shutdown Continues

The federal government shutdown entered its third week yesterday, with no end in sight. Assuming there’s no surprise resolution, Friday...

Fed Minutes Show Cautious Easing as Gold Hits New Highs

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting minutes landed this afternoon, and while markets barely blinked, the message inside...

Economic Summary – Q3 2025

The driving narrative of the third quarter was an abrupt slowdown in job growth, which validated the first Fed rate...

Services Sector Stalls as Shutdown Delays Key Jobs Data

With the September BLS jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown, markets turned to private data earlier in the...

Yields Lower as ADP Reports Negative Job Growth

With the September employment report from the BLS likely postponed on Friday morning, the ADP employment report gains value as...

Delay of Essential Data Expected as Government Shutdown Appears Imminent

The state of the economy has grown increasingly tough to measure, and it’s about to get worse as a looming...

GDP Revision and Durable Goods Point to a Firmer Q3

A fresh wave of economic data today suggests the U.S. economy entered the third quarter with more momentum than previously...

Fed Cuts Rates, Signals Shift Toward Neutral

By a vote of 11–1, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis...

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