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Economic Commentary

Latest Insights
12.23.2025

Fastest GDP Growth in Two Years Signals Fed Pause

The U.S. economy, once again, topped expectations as Q3 GDP unexpectedly rose at a +4.3% inflation-adjusted, annualized quarterly rate, the...
12.18.2025

Consumer Inflation Drops in Admittedly Messy CPI Release

The impact of the 43-day government shutdown was evident in a surprisingly benign CPI release this morning as November consumer...
12.16.2025

November Payrolls Beat Expectations as Unemployment Jumps 0.2%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a combined October–November employment report today, providing the first read on labor conditions following...
12.10.2025

Fed Cuts for the Third Straight Meeting

This afternoon, by a 9-3 count, the FOMC voted in favor of a 25 basis point reduction in the overnight...
12.09.2025

Job Openings Rise as Markets Await Tomorrow’s Fed Decision

After two months of silence, today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is the first official...
12.05.2025

Recent Labor Weakness Supports December Cut

With the December FOMC meeting less than a week away and committee members muted in the midst of their mandated...
11.25.2025

Retail Sales Slow in September with Holiday Week Data Catch Up

The Census Bureau released September retail sales and the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September Producer Price Index today...
11.20.2025

Mixed Employment Data Boosts Chances of December Cut

The September employment report was 48 days late but drew considerable investor attention amid an otherwise barren economic release schedule....
11.19.2025

Oct Fed Minutes Offer Little New Information

Most of the critical information contained in the October FOMC minutes was already well known; in particular, the unusual degree...

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