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Economic Commentary

Latest Insights
11.25.2025

Retail Sales Slow in September with Holiday Week Data Catch Up

The Census Bureau released September retail sales and the Bureau of Labor Statistics published the September Producer Price Index today...
11.20.2025

Mixed Employment Data Boosts Chances of December Cut

The September employment report was 48 days late but drew considerable investor attention amid an otherwise barren economic release schedule....
11.19.2025

Oct Fed Minutes Offer Little New Information

Most of the critical information contained in the October FOMC minutes was already well known; in particular, the unusual degree...
11.05.2025

Mixed Private Sector Data Unlikely to Reroute Fed

At 36 days (and counting) the federal government shutdown is now the longest in history. The results of yesterday’s elections...
10.29.2025

Fed Cuts, while Suggesting December Decision is Undetermined

This afternoon, Fed officials announced a quarter point reduction in the overnight target rate for the second straight meeting. The...
10.24.2025

Fed Easing Now Certain as Consumer Inflation Eases

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) wasn’t as warm as expected, adding certainty to next week’s widely-expected quarter point rate...
10.16.2025

No Progress as the Shutdown Continues

The federal government shutdown entered its third week yesterday, with no end in sight. Assuming there’s no surprise resolution, Friday...
10.08.2025

Fed Minutes Show Cautious Easing as Gold Hits New Highs

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting minutes landed this afternoon, and while markets barely blinked, the message inside...
10.07.2025

Economic Summary – Q3 2025

The driving narrative of the third quarter was an abrupt slowdown in job growth, which validated the first Fed rate...

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