Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Inflation Heats Up, Rate Hike Odds Rise

Bond yields had generally been trending lower over the past two weeks with the expectation that the Fed would hold...

US Economic Update: Third Quarter 2026

The dominant economic story of the third quarter was an alarming rise in bond yields all along the curve. Although...

FOMC Minutes Reinforce Higher-for-Longer Narrative

The minutes from the September 15-16 FOMC meeting confirmed that Fed officials view inflation as the dominant risk, and indicated...

Fed Patience Gains Support as Labor Market Softens

Bonds are rallying for the second straight day as whip-sawed investors now expect the most recent bout of labor market...

October Hike Probability Drops after Flurry of Friendly Data

Unexpected cooling of the Fed’s preferred inflation measure and a surprisingly dovish comment from a prominent FOMC member, combined to...

Bond Market Rout Resumes as Latest Peace Proposal Fails

Last Friday’s encouraging bond market rally proved short-lived as hope for a compromise ending hostilities between the U.S. and Iran...

One and Done? Markets Question the Fed’s Next Move

As widely expected, Fed officials voted to increase the overnight target rate by 25 basis points to a new range...

Retail Sales Rebound, Strengthening the Case for a Fed Rate Hike

U.S. retail sales rebounded sharply in August as American consumers prepared for the new school year and generally continued to...

August CPI Raises the Odds of a Rate Hike Next Week

The August Consumer Price Index offered both the good and the bad. The good news is that underlying inflation continues...

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