Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Oct Fed Minutes Offer Little New Information

Most of the critical information contained in the October FOMC minutes was already well known; in particular, the unusual degree...

Mixed Private Sector Data Unlikely to Reroute Fed

At 36 days (and counting) the federal government shutdown is now the longest in history. The results of yesterday’s elections...

Fed Cuts, while Suggesting December Decision is Undetermined

This afternoon, Fed officials announced a quarter point reduction in the overnight target rate for the second straight meeting. The...

Fed Easing Now Certain as Consumer Inflation Eases

The September Consumer Price Index (CPI) wasn’t as warm as expected, adding certainty to next week’s widely-expected quarter point rate...

No Progress as the Shutdown Continues

The federal government shutdown entered its third week yesterday, with no end in sight. Assuming there’s no surprise resolution, Friday...

Fed Minutes Show Cautious Easing as Gold Hits New Highs

The Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) September meeting minutes landed this afternoon, and while markets barely blinked, the message inside...

Economic Summary – Q3 2025

The driving narrative of the third quarter was an abrupt slowdown in job growth, which validated the first Fed rate...

Services Sector Stalls as Shutdown Delays Key Jobs Data

With the September BLS jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown, markets turned to private data earlier in the...

Yields Lower as ADP Reports Negative Job Growth

With the September employment report from the BLS likely postponed on Friday morning, the ADP employment report gains value as...

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