Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Lower Trade Deficit and Improved Labor Outlook Support Fed Pause

The U.S. trade deficit for October unexpectedly plunged from $48.1b to $29.4b, the smallest since 2009. Analysts were, once again,...

Economic Summary – Q4 2025

The federal government was shuttered for nearly half of the fourth quarter, delaying traditional economic data releases and forcing analysts...

ISM Surveys Indicate Manufacturing Slowed Further While Services Shot Higher in December

The Institute for Supply Management (ISM), one of the oldest organizations in supply chain management, releases its Manufacturing and Services...

Fastest GDP Growth in Two Years Signals Fed Pause

The U.S. economy, once again, topped expectations as Q3 GDP unexpectedly rose at a +4.3% inflation-adjusted, annualized quarterly rate, the...

Consumer Inflation Drops in Admittedly Messy CPI Release

The impact of the 43-day government shutdown was evident in a surprisingly benign CPI release this morning as November consumer...

November Payrolls Beat Expectations as Unemployment Jumps 0.2%

The Bureau of Labor Statistics released a combined October–November employment report today, providing the first read on labor conditions following...

Fed Cuts for the Third Straight Meeting

This afternoon, by a 9-3 count, the FOMC voted in favor of a 25 basis point reduction in the overnight...

Job Openings Rise as Markets Await Tomorrow’s Fed Decision

After two months of silence, today’s release of the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) is the first official...

Recent Labor Weakness Supports December Cut

With the December FOMC meeting less than a week away and committee members muted in the midst of their mandated...

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