Economic Commentary - HilltopSecurities

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Economic Commentary

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Economic Summary – Q3 2025

The driving narrative of the third quarter was an abrupt slowdown in job growth, which validated the first Fed rate...

Services Sector Stalls as Shutdown Delays Key Jobs Data

With the September BLS jobs report delayed due to the government shutdown, markets turned to private data earlier in the...

Yields Lower as ADP Reports Negative Job Growth

With the September employment report from the BLS likely postponed on Friday morning, the ADP employment report gains value as...

Delay of Essential Data Expected as Government Shutdown Appears Imminent

The state of the economy has grown increasingly tough to measure, and it’s about to get worse as a looming...

GDP Revision and Durable Goods Point to a Firmer Q3

A fresh wave of economic data today suggests the U.S. economy entered the third quarter with more momentum than previously...

Fed Cuts Rates, Signals Shift Toward Neutral

By a vote of 11–1, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) lowered the federal funds target range by 25 basis...

Jobless Claims Surge while CPI is no Worse than Expected

The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) came in slightly above forecast for August, but other major CPI data points matched...

Markets Shrug Off Indication of Further Labor Market Weakness

The first estimate of the annual benchmark revision by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) indicated -911k fewer jobs were...

Labor Market Stalls Again, Eyes Turn to Inflation Data

The markets responded quickly to another disappointing jobs report, with Treasury yields falling and rate cut expectations rising. Nonfarm payrolls...

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